Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 9 October 2026. Next fixtures: ECAL calendar. Official league calendar (ECAL), first kick-off after now (UK), when available.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Manchester City FC	Liverpool FC	Away	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:30	1.45 – 0.84 (rounded 1–1)	51.6% win / 26.7% draw / 21.6% loss	Liverpool FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
2	Arsenal FC	Leeds United	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 12:30	0.82 – 0.6 (rounded 1–1)	37.8% win / 37.6% draw / 24.6% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward; Leeds United FC solid away defence.
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	Sunderland AFC	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	3.85 – 0.99 (rounded 4–1)	86.4% win / 8.4% draw / 5.3% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road; Sunderland AFC concede more at home.
4	Brentford FC	Aston Villa	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	2.08 – 0.55 (rounded 2–1)	73.3% win / 18.1% draw / 8.6% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack; Brentford FC solid away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
5	Leeds United	Arsenal FC	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 12:30	0.6 – 0.82 (rounded 1–1)	24.6% win / 37.6% draw / 37.8% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward; Leeds United FC solid away defence.
6	Liverpool FC	Manchester City FC	Home	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:30	0.84 – 1.45 (rounded 1–1)	21.6% win / 26.7% draw / 51.6% loss	Liverpool FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
7	Everton FC	Hull City AFC	Away	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00	0.36 – 0.5 (rounded 0–0)	20.2% win / 50.2% draw / 29.7% loss	Hull City AFC muted home attack; Everton FC solid away defence.
8	Hull City AFC	Everton FC	Home	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00	0.5 – 0.36 (rounded 0–0)	29.7% win / 50.2% draw / 20.2% loss	Hull City AFC muted home attack; Everton FC solid away defence.
9	Newcastle United	Coventry City FC	Away	Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00	2.59 – 0.43 (rounded 3–0)	83.6% win / 12.1% draw / 4.3% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
10	Chelsea FC	AFC Bournemouth	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	3.04 – 2.06 (rounded 3–2)	58% win / 16.7% draw / 25.3% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
11	Ipswich Town FC	Fulham FC	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	1.25 – 0.92 (rounded 1–1)	44% win / 28.9% draw / 27.2% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; Ipswich Town FC concede more at home.
12	Manchester United FC	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30	2.26 – 0.29 (rounded 2–0)	82.6% win / 13.8% draw / 3.5% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Tottenham Hotspur FC leakier away defence.
13	Nottingham Forest	Crystal Palace FC	Away	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00	1.98 – 1.14 (rounded 2–1)	56.7% win / 21.7% draw / 21.6% loss	Crystal Palace FC muted home attack; Nottingham Forest FC solid away defence; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
14	Sunderland AFC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	0.99 – 3.85 (rounded 1–4)	5.3% win / 8.4% draw / 86.4% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road; Sunderland AFC concede more at home.
15	Crystal Palace FC	Nottingham Forest	Home	Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:00	1.14 – 1.98 (rounded 1–2)	21.6% win / 21.7% draw / 56.7% loss	Crystal Palace FC muted home attack; Nottingham Forest FC solid away defence; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
16	Aston Villa	Brentford FC	Home	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	0.55 – 2.08 (rounded 1–2)	8.6% win / 18.1% draw / 73.3% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack; Brentford FC solid away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
17	AFC Bournemouth	Chelsea FC	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	2.06 – 3.04 (rounded 2–3)	25.3% win / 16.7% draw / 58% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
18	Coventry City FC	Newcastle United	Home	Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 20:00	0.43 – 2.59 (rounded 0–3)	4.3% win / 12.1% draw / 83.6% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
19	Fulham FC	Ipswich Town FC	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00	0.92 – 1.25 (rounded 1–1)	27.2% win / 28.9% draw / 44% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; Ipswich Town FC concede more at home.
20	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Manchester United FC	Away	Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 17:30	0.29 – 2.26 (rounded 0–2)	3.5% win / 13.8% draw / 82.6% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Tottenham Hotspur FC leakier away defence.

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 9 October 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Swansea City AFC	Norwich City FC	Home	10 October 2026	2.21 – 0.3 (rounded 2–0)	81.6% win / 14.5% draw / 3.8% loss	Swansea City AFC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
2	West Ham United FC	Queens Park Rangers FC	Home	9 October 2026	2.06 – 0.91 (rounded 2–1)	63.9% win / 20.3% draw / 15.8% loss	West Ham United FC strong at home going forward; Queens Park Rangers FC solid away defence; Queens Park Rangers FC dangerous on the road.
3	Middlesbrough FC	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	10 October 2026	3.78 – 2.13 (rounded 4–2)	67.6% win / 13.8% draw / 18.6% loss	Middlesbrough FC strong at home going forward; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
4	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Middlesbrough FC	Away	10 October 2026	2.13 – 3.78 (rounded 2–4)	18.6% win / 13.8% draw / 67.6% loss	Middlesbrough FC strong at home going forward; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
5	West Bromwich Albion	Birmingham City FC	Home	10 October 2026	1.18 – 0.57 (rounded 1–1)	50.8% win / 31.2% draw / 17.9% loss	West Bromwich Albion FC muted home attack; Birmingham City FC solid away defence.
6	Queens Park Rangers FC	West Ham United FC	Away	9 October 2026	0.91 – 2.06 (rounded 1–2)	15.8% win / 20.3% draw / 63.9% loss	West Ham United FC strong at home going forward; Queens Park Rangers FC solid away defence; Queens Park Rangers FC dangerous on the road.
7	Stoke City FC	Bolton Wanderers FC	Away	10 October 2026	0.95 – 2.21 (rounded 1–2)	15% win / 19.1% draw / 65.9% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; Stoke City FC leakier away defence.
8	Bristol City FC	Charlton Athletic	Away	10 October 2026	0.4 – 1.18 (rounded 0–1)	12.6% win / 31.6% draw / 55.9% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Bristol City FC leakier away defence; Bristol City FC dangerous on the road.
9	Charlton Athletic	Bristol City FC	Home	10 October 2026	1.18 – 0.4 (rounded 1–0)	55.9% win / 31.6% draw / 12.6% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Bristol City FC leakier away defence; Bristol City FC dangerous on the road.
10	Birmingham City FC	West Bromwich Albion	Away	10 October 2026	0.57 – 1.18 (rounded 1–1)	17.9% win / 31.2% draw / 50.8% loss	West Bromwich Albion FC muted home attack; Birmingham City FC solid away defence.
11	Millwall FC	Preston North End FC	Away	10 October 2026	1.83 – 1.96 (rounded 2–2)	36.7% win / 21.3% draw / 42% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack; Millwall FC leakier away defence; Millwall FC dangerous on the road.
12	Lincoln City FC	Sheffield United FC	Away	10 October 2026	0.91 – 0.39 (rounded 1–0)	47% win / 37.7% draw / 15.3% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
13	Southampton FC	Portsmouth FC	Home	11 October 2026	2.94 – 0.81 (rounded 3–1)	80.3% win / 12.3% draw / 7.3% loss	Southampton FC strong at home going forward; Portsmouth FC solid away defence.
14	Wrexham AFC	Derby County	Away	10 October 2026	1.22 – 1.03 (rounded 1–1)	40.4% win / 28.6% draw / 31% loss	Derby County FC muted home attack; Wrexham AFC leakier away defence; Derby County FC concede more at home.
15	Bolton Wanderers FC	Stoke City FC	Home	10 October 2026	2.21 – 0.95 (rounded 2–1)	65.9% win / 19.1% draw / 15% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; Stoke City FC leakier away defence.
16	Blackburn Rovers	Cardiff City FC	Home	10 October 2026	2.4 – 0.69 (rounded 2–1)	75.5% win / 15.8% draw / 8.7% loss	Cardiff City FC leakier away defence.
17	Norwich City FC	Swansea City AFC	Away	10 October 2026	0.3 – 2.21 (rounded 0–2)	3.8% win / 14.5% draw / 81.6% loss	Swansea City AFC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
18	Sheffield United FC	Lincoln City FC	Home	10 October 2026	0.39 – 0.91 (rounded 0–1)	15.3% win / 37.7% draw / 47% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
19	Portsmouth FC	Southampton FC	Away	11 October 2026	0.81 – 2.94 (rounded 1–3)	7.3% win / 12.3% draw / 80.3% loss	Southampton FC strong at home going forward; Portsmouth FC solid away defence.
20	Watford FC	Burnley FC	Home	10 October 2026	3.24 – 0.76 (rounded 3–1)	84.5% win / 10.1% draw / 5.4% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence.
21	Cardiff City FC	Blackburn Rovers	Away	10 October 2026	0.69 – 2.4 (rounded 1–2)	8.7% win / 15.8% draw / 75.5% loss	Cardiff City FC leakier away defence.
22	Derby County	Wrexham AFC	Home	10 October 2026	1.03 – 1.22 (rounded 1–1)	31% win / 28.6% draw / 40.4% loss	Derby County FC muted home attack; Wrexham AFC leakier away defence; Derby County FC concede more at home.
23	Preston North End FC	Millwall FC	Home	10 October 2026	1.96 – 1.83 (rounded 2–2)	42% win / 21.3% draw / 36.7% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack; Millwall FC leakier away defence; Millwall FC dangerous on the road.
24	Burnley FC	Watford FC	Away	10 October 2026	0.76 – 3.24 (rounded 1–3)	5.4% win / 10.1% draw / 84.5% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence.

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