Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 6 September 2026. Next fixtures: ECAL calendar. Official league calendar (ECAL), first kick-off after now (UK), when available.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Manchester City FC	Manchester United FC	Away	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 16:30	3.61 – 2.98 (rounded 4–3)	51.4% win / 15.7% draw / 32.9% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
2	Hull City AFC	Chelsea FC	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	1.91 – 0.8 (rounded 2–1)	63.5% win / 21.4% draw / 15% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; Hull City AFC solid away defence; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
3	Arsenal FC	Sunderland AFC	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 20:00	0.45 – 0.2 (rounded 0–0)	30.7% win / 57.2% draw / 12.1% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Arsenal FC solid away defence.
4	Chelsea FC	Hull City AFC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	0.8 – 1.91 (rounded 1–2)	15% win / 21.4% draw / 63.5% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; Hull City AFC solid away defence; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
5	Brentford FC	AFC Bournemouth	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	1.37 – 0.78 (rounded 1–1)	50.8% win / 27.9% draw / 21.3% loss	AFC Bournemouth muted home attack; Brentford FC solid away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
6	Liverpool FC	Fulham FC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	3.18 – 0.91 (rounded 3–1)	81.3% win / 11.4% draw / 7.3% loss	Liverpool FC strong at home going forward; Fulham FC leakier away defence.
6	Newcastle United	Leeds United	Away	Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 20:00	0.98 – 0.77 (rounded 1–1)	39.1% win / 33.3% draw / 27.7% loss	Leeds United FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC solid away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
8	Leeds United	Newcastle United	Home	Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 20:00	0.77 – 0.98 (rounded 1–1)	27.7% win / 33.3% draw / 39.1% loss	Leeds United FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC solid away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
9	Brighton & Hove Albion	Coventry City FC	Away	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 14:00	2.58 – 0.61 (rounded 3–1)	79.7% win / 13.7% draw / 6.6% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC leakier away defence; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.
10	Everton FC	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 17:30	1.12 – 0.26 (rounded 1–0)	58.6% win / 32.9% draw / 8.5% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC muted home attack; Everton FC solid away defence; Tottenham Hotspur FC concede more at home.
11	Sunderland AFC	Arsenal FC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 20:00	0.2 – 0.45 (rounded 0–0)	12.1% win / 57.2% draw / 30.7% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Arsenal FC solid away defence.
12	Manchester United FC	Manchester City FC	Home	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 16:30	2.98 – 3.61 (rounded 3–4)	32.9% win / 15.7% draw / 51.4% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
13	Crystal Palace FC	Ipswich Town FC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	3.42 – 2.99 (rounded 3–3)	48.4% win / 16.1% draw / 35.6% loss	Crystal Palace FC muted home attack; Ipswich Town FC leakier away defence; Ipswich Town FC dangerous on the road.
13	Ipswich Town FC	Crystal Palace FC	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	2.99 – 3.42 (rounded 3–3)	35.6% win / 16.1% draw / 48.4% loss	Crystal Palace FC muted home attack; Ipswich Town FC leakier away defence; Ipswich Town FC dangerous on the road.
15	AFC Bournemouth	Brentford FC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	0.78 – 1.37 (rounded 1–1)	21.3% win / 27.9% draw / 50.8% loss	AFC Bournemouth muted home attack; Brentford FC solid away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
16	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	1 – 0.34 (rounded 1–0)	51.7% win / 36% draw / 12.3% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack.
17	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	0.34 – 1 (rounded 0–1)	12.3% win / 36% draw / 51.7% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack.
17	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Everton FC	Home	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 17:30	0.26 – 1.12 (rounded 0–1)	8.5% win / 32.9% draw / 58.6% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC muted home attack; Everton FC solid away defence; Tottenham Hotspur FC concede more at home.
19	Fulham FC	Liverpool FC	Away	Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 15:00	0.91 – 3.18 (rounded 1–3)	7.3% win / 11.4% draw / 81.3% loss	Liverpool FC strong at home going forward; Fulham FC leakier away defence.
20	Coventry City FC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Home	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 14:00	0.61 – 2.58 (rounded 1–3)	6.6% win / 13.7% draw / 79.7% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC leakier away defence; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 6 September 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Swansea City AFC	Southampton FC	Away	8 September 2026	1.24 – 0.63 (rounded 1–1)	50.9% win / 30% draw / 19% loss	Southampton FC strong at home going forward; Swansea City AFC solid away defence; Swansea City AFC dangerous on the road.
2	Middlesbrough FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	Queens Park Rangers FC	Charlton Athletic	Away	9 September 2026	1.23 – 0.88 (rounded 1–1)	44.1% win / 29.3% draw / 26.6% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Queens Park Rangers FC solid away defence; Queens Park Rangers FC dangerous on the road.
4	Bristol City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
5	West Bromwich Albion	Derby County	Away	9 September 2026	2.12 – 1.15 (rounded 2–1)	59.6% win / 20.5% draw / 19.9% loss	Derby County FC muted home attack; West Bromwich Albion FC leakier away defence; West Bromwich Albion FC dangerous on the road.
6	Charlton Athletic	Queens Park Rangers FC	Home	9 September 2026	0.88 – 1.23 (rounded 1–1)	26.6% win / 29.3% draw / 44.1% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Queens Park Rangers FC solid away defence; Queens Park Rangers FC dangerous on the road.
7	Millwall FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	West Ham United FC	Bolton Wanderers FC	Away	8 September 2026	1.95 – 0.98 (rounded 2–1)	59.9% win / 21.6% draw / 18.5% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; West Ham United FC leakier away defence; West Ham United FC dangerous on the road.
9	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Birmingham City FC	Away	6 September 2026	1.93 – 2.27 (rounded 2–2)	33.7% win / 19.9% draw / 46.4% loss	Birmingham City FC muted home attack; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
10	Birmingham City FC	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	6 September 2026	2.27 – 1.93 (rounded 2–2)	46.4% win / 19.9% draw / 33.7% loss	Birmingham City FC muted home attack; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
11	Norwich City FC	Birmingham City FC	Home	9 September 2026	1.27 – 1.16 (rounded 1–1)	38.9% win / 27.4% draw / 33.6% loss	Norwich City FC strong at home going forward; Birmingham City FC solid away defence.
12	Stoke City FC	Cardiff City FC	Away	8 September 2026	1.52 – 2.38 (rounded 2–2)	24.1% win / 19.4% draw / 56.5% loss	Cardiff City FC muted home attack; Stoke City FC leakier away defence; Stoke City FC dangerous on the road.
13	Portsmouth FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	Sheffield United FC	Blackburn Rovers	Away	8 September 2026	1.02 – 1.32 (rounded 1–1)	29% win / 27.7% draw / 43.3% loss	Blackburn Rovers FC muted home attack.
15	Wrexham AFC	Burnley FC	Home	8 September 2026	2.48 – 0.72 (rounded 2–1)	75.8% win / 15.3% draw / 8.8% loss	Wrexham AFC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence.
16	Blackburn Rovers	Sheffield United FC	Home	8 September 2026	1.32 – 1.02 (rounded 1–1)	43.3% win / 27.7% draw / 29% loss	Blackburn Rovers FC muted home attack.
17	Watford FC	Preston North End FC	Home	8 September 2026	1.49 – 0.61 (rounded 1–1)	58.7% win / 26.2% draw / 15.1% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC leakier away defence.
17	Lincoln City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	Southampton FC	Swansea City AFC	Home	8 September 2026	0.63 – 1.24 (rounded 1–1)	19% win / 30% draw / 50.9% loss	Southampton FC strong at home going forward; Swansea City AFC solid away defence; Swansea City AFC dangerous on the road.
20	Derby County	West Bromwich Albion	Home	9 September 2026	1.15 – 2.12 (rounded 1–2)	19.9% win / 20.5% draw / 59.6% loss	Derby County FC muted home attack; West Bromwich Albion FC leakier away defence; West Bromwich Albion FC dangerous on the road.
21	Bolton Wanderers FC	West Ham United FC	Home	8 September 2026	0.98 – 1.95 (rounded 1–2)	18.5% win / 21.6% draw / 59.9% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; West Ham United FC leakier away defence; West Ham United FC dangerous on the road.
22	Cardiff City FC	Stoke City FC	Home	8 September 2026	2.38 – 1.52 (rounded 2–2)	56.5% win / 19.4% draw / 24.1% loss	Cardiff City FC muted home attack; Stoke City FC leakier away defence; Stoke City FC dangerous on the road.
23	Preston North End FC	Watford FC	Away	8 September 2026	0.61 – 1.49 (rounded 1–1)	15.1% win / 26.2% draw / 58.7% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC leakier away defence.
24	Burnley FC	Wrexham AFC	Away	8 September 2026	0.72 – 2.48 (rounded 1–2)	8.8% win / 15.3% draw / 75.8% loss	Wrexham AFC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence.

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