Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 22 October 2026. Next fixtures: ECAL calendar. Official league calendar (ECAL), first kick-off after now (UK), when available.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Manchester City FC	Aston Villa	Away	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30	2.75 – 0.26 (rounded 3–0)	88.9% win / 9.1% draw / 2% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
2	Arsenal FC	Everton FC	Home	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00	1.81 – 0.41 (rounded 2–0)	71.8% win / 20.5% draw / 7.7% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward; Everton FC solid away defence.
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	Liverpool FC	Away	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	3.44 – 0.69 (rounded 3–1)	87.5% win / 8.5% draw / 4.1% loss	Liverpool FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.
4	Chelsea FC	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Home	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30	3.8 – 0.41 (rounded 4–0)	93.5% win / 5% draw / 1.5% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
5	Liverpool FC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Home	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	0.69 – 3.44 (rounded 1–3)	4.1% win / 8.5% draw / 87.5% loss	Liverpool FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.
6	Brentford FC	Hull City AFC	Away	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	0.69 – 1.73 (rounded 1–2)	14.4% win / 23.1% draw / 62.4% loss	Hull City AFC muted home attack; Brentford FC leakier away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
7	Leeds United	Sunderland AFC	Away	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30	0.83 – 0.26 (rounded 1–0)	47.5% win / 41.4% draw / 11.1% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Leeds United FC solid away defence.
8	Everton FC	Arsenal FC	Away	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00	0.41 – 1.81 (rounded 0–2)	7.7% win / 20.5% draw / 71.8% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward; Everton FC solid away defence.
9	Hull City AFC	Brentford FC	Home	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	1.73 – 0.69 (rounded 2–1)	62.4% win / 23.1% draw / 14.4% loss	Hull City AFC muted home attack; Brentford FC leakier away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
10	Ipswich Town FC	Nottingham Forest	Home	Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00	2.07 – 1.38 (rounded 2–1)	53.6% win / 21.2% draw / 25.3% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; Nottingham Forest FC leakier away defence; Nottingham Forest FC dangerous on the road.
11	Newcastle United	Crystal Palace FC	Away	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	2.2 – 4.15 (rounded 2–4)	16.5% win / 12.6% draw / 70.9% loss	Crystal Palace FC strong at home going forward; Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
12	Aston Villa	Manchester City FC	Home	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30	0.26 – 2.75 (rounded 0–3)	2% win / 9.1% draw / 88.9% loss	Aston Villa FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
13	Manchester United FC	AFC Bournemouth	Home	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	4.67 – 1.1 (rounded 5–1)	90.4% win / 5.9% draw / 3.7% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence.
14	Crystal Palace FC	Newcastle United	Home	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	4.15 – 2.2 (rounded 4–2)	70.9% win / 12.6% draw / 16.5% loss	Crystal Palace FC strong at home going forward; Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
15	AFC Bournemouth	Manchester United FC	Away	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00	1.1 – 4.67 (rounded 1–5)	3.7% win / 5.9% draw / 90.4% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence.
16	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Chelsea FC	Away	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30	0.41 – 3.8 (rounded 0–4)	1.5% win / 5% draw / 93.5% loss	Chelsea FC strong at home going forward; Chelsea FC concede more at home.
17	Coventry City FC	Fulham FC	Home	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00	1.04 – 0.48 (rounded 1–0)	48.8% win / 34.3% draw / 16.9% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Fulham FC solid away defence; Coventry City FC concede more at home.
18	Fulham FC	Coventry City FC	Away	Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00	0.48 – 1.04 (rounded 0–1)	16.9% win / 34.3% draw / 48.8% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Fulham FC solid away defence; Coventry City FC concede more at home.
19	Nottingham Forest	Ipswich Town FC	Away	Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:00	1.38 – 2.07 (rounded 1–2)	25.3% win / 21.2% draw / 53.6% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; Nottingham Forest FC leakier away defence; Nottingham Forest FC dangerous on the road.
20	Sunderland AFC	Leeds United	Home	Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 16:30	0.26 – 0.83 (rounded 0–1)	11.1% win / 41.4% draw / 47.5% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Leeds United FC solid away defence.

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 22 October 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Swansea City AFC	Queens Park Rangers FC	Away	24 October 2026	1.14 – 1.24 (rounded 1–1)	33.7% win / 27.8% draw / 38.5% loss	Swansea City AFC solid away defence; Swansea City AFC dangerous on the road.
2	West Ham United FC	Southampton FC	Home	24 October 2026	2.78 – 0.63 (rounded 3–1)	81.8% win / 12.2% draw / 5.9% loss	West Ham United FC strong at home going forward.
3	Middlesbrough FC	Bolton Wanderers FC	Away	23 October 2026	1.41 – 1.3 (rounded 1–1)	39.9% win / 25.7% draw / 34.4% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; Middlesbrough FC leakier away defence; Middlesbrough FC dangerous on the road.
4	Birmingham City FC	Cardiff City FC	Away	24 October 2026	0.91 – 1.48 (rounded 1–1)	23.1% win / 26.3% draw / 50.6% loss	Cardiff City FC strong at home going forward; Birmingham City FC solid away defence.
5	West Bromwich Albion	Preston North End FC	Away	24 October 2026	1.36 – 0.74 (rounded 1–1)	51.7% win / 28% draw / 20.3% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC concede more at home.
6	Stoke City FC	Bristol City FC	Home	24 October 2026	2.78 – 1.36 (rounded 3–1)	67% win / 16.4% draw / 16.6% loss	Stoke City FC strong at home going forward; Bristol City FC leakier away defence; Bristol City FC dangerous on the road.
7	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Watford FC	Home	24 October 2026	2.78 – 0.35 (rounded 3–0)	87.3% win / 9.8% draw / 2.9% loss	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC strong at home going forward; Watford FC leakier away defence.
8	Southampton FC	West Ham United FC	Away	24 October 2026	0.63 – 2.78 (rounded 1–3)	5.9% win / 12.2% draw / 81.8% loss	West Ham United FC strong at home going forward.
9	Queens Park Rangers FC	Swansea City AFC	Home	24 October 2026	1.24 – 1.14 (rounded 1–1)	38.5% win / 27.8% draw / 33.7% loss	Swansea City AFC solid away defence; Swansea City AFC dangerous on the road.
10	Blackburn Rovers	Wrexham AFC	Home	24 October 2026	2.22 – 0.88 (rounded 2–1)	67.8% win / 18.7% draw / 13.6% loss	Blackburn Rovers FC strong at home going forward; Wrexham AFC leakier away defence.
11	Sheffield United FC	Derby County	Home	24 October 2026	2.16 – 0.76 (rounded 2–1)	69.6% win / 18.6% draw / 11.8% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Derby County FC leakier away defence.
12	Millwall FC	Portsmouth FC	Away	24 October 2026	1.59 – 2.47 (rounded 2–2)	24.2% win / 18.9% draw / 56.9% loss	Millwall FC leakier away defence; Millwall FC dangerous on the road; Portsmouth FC concede more at home.
13	Portsmouth FC	Millwall FC	Home	24 October 2026	2.47 – 1.59 (rounded 2–2)	56.9% win / 18.9% draw / 24.2% loss	Millwall FC leakier away defence; Millwall FC dangerous on the road; Portsmouth FC concede more at home.
14	Wrexham AFC	Blackburn Rovers	Away	24 October 2026	0.88 – 2.22 (rounded 1–2)	13.6% win / 18.7% draw / 67.8% loss	Blackburn Rovers FC strong at home going forward; Wrexham AFC leakier away defence.
15	Bolton Wanderers FC	Middlesbrough FC	Home	23 October 2026	1.3 – 1.41 (rounded 1–1)	34.4% win / 25.7% draw / 39.9% loss	Bolton Wanderers FC muted home attack; Middlesbrough FC leakier away defence; Middlesbrough FC dangerous on the road.
16	Bristol City FC	Stoke City FC	Away	24 October 2026	1.36 – 2.78 (rounded 1–3)	16.6% win / 16.4% draw / 67% loss	Stoke City FC strong at home going forward; Bristol City FC leakier away defence; Bristol City FC dangerous on the road.
17	Charlton Athletic	Norwich City FC	Home	24 October 2026	1.36 – 0.35 (rounded 1–0)	62.7% win / 27.8% draw / 9.5% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
18	Lincoln City FC	Burnley FC	Home	24 October 2026	1.02 – 2.43 (rounded 1–2)	14.1% win / 17.5% draw / 68.3% loss	Lincoln City FC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence; Burnley FC dangerous on the road.
19	Cardiff City FC	Birmingham City FC	Home	24 October 2026	1.48 – 0.91 (rounded 1–1)	50.6% win / 26.3% draw / 23.1% loss	Cardiff City FC strong at home going forward; Birmingham City FC solid away defence.
20	Watford FC	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Away	24 October 2026	0.35 – 2.78 (rounded 0–3)	2.9% win / 9.8% draw / 87.3% loss	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC strong at home going forward; Watford FC leakier away defence.
21	Norwich City FC	Charlton Athletic	Away	24 October 2026	0.35 – 1.36 (rounded 0–1)	9.5% win / 27.8% draw / 62.7% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
22	Burnley FC	Lincoln City FC	Away	24 October 2026	2.43 – 1.02 (rounded 2–1)	68.3% win / 17.5% draw / 14.1% loss	Lincoln City FC muted home attack; Burnley FC leakier away defence; Burnley FC dangerous on the road.
23	Derby County	Sheffield United FC	Away	24 October 2026	0.76 – 2.16 (rounded 1–2)	11.8% win / 18.6% draw / 69.6% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Derby County FC leakier away defence.
24	Preston North End FC	West Bromwich Albion	Home	24 October 2026	0.74 – 1.36 (rounded 1–1)	20.3% win / 28% draw / 51.7% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC concede more at home.

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